Hou not Gou

It's been a tight race and now the die has been cast for Hou You-yi; maintaining KMT party unity will now be the challenge ahead.

Terry Gou and Hou You-yi buddy up in a Taiwan Plus screen grab.

It appeared to be head and neck in the final run for the KMT’s presidential nominee pick, with near universal (in Taiwan at least) expectations that Taipei New City mayor You Hou-yi (侯友宜, Hóu Yǒuyí) would represent the party even as Foxconn founder Terry Gou (郭台銘, Guō Táimíng) piled on the pressure.

The KMT chose Hou as expected but it still faces a deep internal contradiction between its need to maintain its Mainlander identity and its need to engage with the Taiwanese majority electorate.

Hou, the New Taipei mayor, was seen as the most legitimate contender by many in the party, but he has been vague on his policies toward China and national defense.

Reports Reuters:

Formerly the head of the National Police Agency, 65-year-old Hou gained popularity after winning a re-election in New Taipei city late last year in a local election in which the KMT trounced the DPP.

The KMT denies being pro-Beijing, although it supports maintaining good relations with China as well as the proposal that both are part of a single China though each can have its own interpretation of the term.

Gou, the Foxconn founder, is deep blue – an old school KMT advocate from a so-called 49er family – who calls for dialogue with China based on the One China Principle and the 1992 Consensus, and opposes Taiwan becoming an “ammunition dump” for the US.

Hou’s candidacy will make the 2024 election more competitive and unpredictable, as he could appeal to moderate voters who are dissatisfied with the DPP’s handling of cross-strait relations and domestic issues. However, Hou would also have to consider the risk of running for president only one year after winning re-election as mayor, which means he’ll need a by-election to find his own replacement in New Taipei City.

Donovan Smith again has argued that the KMT’s possible presidential nominations, Eric Chu, Hou Yu-ih, and Terry Gou, differ on cross-strait relations and military issues – Hou more moderate and vague, while Gou more deep blue and explicit.

Another veteran Taiwan commentator Michael Turton took a more acerbic view, pointing out that the KMT lacks interesting, forward-looking or progressive public policies, and predicts that it will resort to an ugly, negative, stereotyped campaign in the 2024 presidential election. He contended that the main contenders for the KMT nomination, Hou You-yi and Terry Gou, appeal to different segments of voters based on their backgrounds and views on COVID-19, China and national defense.

Hou – now the anointed nominee – is more moderate and mainstream than Gou, who is a deep blue with populist tendencies. However, Hou's popularity has declined as he has become more public and aligned with the KMT party doctrine. Hou's candidacy could still alienate the deep blue base of the KMT, which might have prefered Gou’s nationalist and authoritarian rhetoric.

How can Hou, asked Turton, differentiate himself from the DPP on public policy issues, as his policies as mayor of New Taipei City are hardly different from those of the DPP?

That remains to be seen.

Turton is not alone in speculating that Gou might run as an independent. That also remains to be seen, but is probably unlikely.

Local Chinese-language media has been critical of KMT Party Chair Eric Chu, who in fairness is in an invidious position, with KMT Taipei City Councilor Chin Heui-chu (秦慧珠) arguing that today …

… the most mysterious recruitment drama in history will be resolved but however it works out it will be difficult to ask everyone to unite.

Chin pointed out that the decision on the presidential nominee had been undertaken amid such confusion and in such secrecy …

How will it unite the ‘non-green alliance’? Who outside the party would dare to trust the KMT?”

It’s a good point: the KMT is on the back foot due to deciding to forego a primary for its presidential candidate, nominating candidates by a special committee composed of party leaders, representatives, and experts, arguing this would avoid internal strife and help find a candidate with broad appeal outside the pan-green camp.

It could equally end up being a compromise choice with little allure to an electorate weighing not just China issues but everything from a tepid economy, low wages, climate change – and concomitant rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and water shortages – air pollution and social welfare in the form of an aging population, low birth rates, income inequality, housing affordability, healthcare reform, and pension sustainability.

And then there are the usual election-grabbing headlines: what’s wrong with lower taxes, less red tape, and revived cross-strait trade and tourism?

Gou muddied the waters for some time with his strong appeal among pan-white voters – supporters of Ko Wen-je (柯文哲, Kē Wénzhé) Taiwan People’s Party, who are dissatisfied with both the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and the opposition.

If Gou goes it alone, the 2024 presidential elections will be even more deeply divided, which is likely to bode well for Lai Ching-de of the Democratic Progressive Party.

At least it’s extremely unlikely that veteran James Soong, who divided the 2000 presidential elections and gave the DPP their first victory under Chen Shui-bian, will run in the presidential elections next year.

He has run for president four times before, in 2000, 2012, 2016, and 2020, but never won. He’s 81 years old and was hospitalized twice last year for pneumonia and a stroke. He has also been facing legal troubles over his alleged involvement in a corruption scandal during his tenure as governor of Taiwan Province from 1993 to 1998, and his former allies – former president Ma Ying-jeou and former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je – have distanced themselves from him. His pro-China stance has also alienated many Taiwanese voters who are wary of Beijing's pressure and interference.

Ko Wen-je's chances of winning the presidential election next year are also slim, as the TPP is a small centrist party that he founded in 2019 and he only got 11.2% of the votes in the last presidential election, coming in third behind the Democratic Progressive Party's Tsai Ing-wen and the Kuomintang's Han Kuo-yu.

Ko is also known for his outspoken and controversial remarks, which have often offended or alienated various groups of voters. He has been accused of being pro-China, anti-Taiwan, anti-Japan, anti-US, anti-women, anti-gay, and anti-environment. He has also been criticized for his lack of political vision, leadership skills, and policy proposals.

He’s not a realistic contender, but he will steal some all-important votes, and meanwhile the KMT may have finally chosen their “man,” but the real fun is only just beginning

As Courtney Donovan Smith noted in his follow up tweet to the one above:

There is a lot of concern in KMT on party unity once Chu's decision is announced, like in 2019. Also worries Gou might run anyway if he's not picked.

Chu’s decision has been announced, now the KMT faces unity issues and a DPP that had its presidential pick sorted well in advance.

Gou and Ko are yet more potential flies in the ointment; it is unlikely to be anything other than a rambunctious fight to the end – but who expects anything less of Taiwanese politics?