China, Russia, US, Nato … don’t forget Japan: Photo by cottonbro from Pexels

A wise adage—I’m not suggesting it’s really an adage, although it kind of is if you’ve lived in Northeast Asia for more than 10 years—goes, “Forget Japan at your own risk.”

All the reams of analysis that pour off the presses daily as the world allegedly faces its biggest crisis since WWII, barely ever mention Japan, which is the world’s third largest economy and a US ally.

This has been going on for a long time, but as Bloomberg recently reported, there’s still much talk of “Nato-like nuclear weapons sharing,” as promoted by former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and which run along such lines:

NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements [would] let the US keep its nuclear weapons in Europe under its custody. “Many people in Japan probably don’t know about the system,” Abe said Sunday on a Fuji Television show.
‘Japan should not treat as a taboo discussions on the reality of how the world is kept safe,’ said Abe, who oversaw a steady rise in defense spending during his time as premier that ended in 2020.

Liu Xiaoming, a Chinese official, called yesterday, for an end to such talk on a Twitter thread.

But for the real crazy stuff—what China “really thinks”—you have to go to the Global Times, our favorite state-run tabloid:

It is not only ironic, but also a huge real risk, that a group of people in the only country in the world that was bombed by atomic bombs would call for an invitation to the culprit to deploy nuclear weapons in their own territory. Japanese right-wing politicians are more fanatical about nuclear weapons than politicians in any other country in the world, and today, they have evolved into a perverted psychology that borders on distortion. The shame of the defeated country and the desire for revenge, though always suppressed, have constantly lurked in their blood, eager to break free from the shackles.

Ouch!

But nukes aside, if this is all going to hell, Japan will defend itself as an ally of the US (and will almost undoubtedly support Taiwan). Forbes reports (Nov 30, 2021):

The Japanese cabinet approved an unprecedented 773.8 billion yen (roughly US$6.8 billion) in additional military spending requested by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, far exceeding prior defense spending supplements. That may boost Japan’s baseline 2021 defense budget of around 5.34 trillion yen (US$47 billion) to the equivalent of $53.8 billion, increasing defense spending to account for 1.3% of Japanese GDP.
In reality, the current surge mostly hastens deployment of troops and technologies already scheduled in 2022-2024—a bid to rapidly upgrade forces while ginning up economic activity in a Covid-wracked economy.
Nonetheless, Japan’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party has vowed to eventually boost that up to 2% GDP at the same time as Tokyo is more openly backing Taiwan than before.

Back to the immediate scene of armed conflict, the New York Times offers the brain teaser, who will win the war between Russia and Ukraine?

Now, you know it’s a trick question, so you try to think of something most other people won’t think of that could conceivably be true.

“Covid,” you reply.

Nope, says the Times, it’s China.

That’s a bold call, so here at ChinaDiction we’re going to boldly predict that the US, Nato, Japan and Taiwan are going to come out of this stronger and more united than before. Russia will increasingly devolve into an angry economic basket case and China will find its influence greatly diminished as it tries to square the circle between its byzantine theories about how the world evolves into a Marxist paradise without the support of somewhere far more powerful than Russia.

The Economist notes in its newsletter daily briefing today:

To those who fret that the Ukraine imbroglio is a distraction from the much greater threat of China, Biden administration officials retort that the weakening of Russia and the strengthening of European allies will ultimately “pay dividends” in Asia.”

It’s not insane thinking. Some 200 years ago Napoleon Bonaparte allegedly warned the world about China and said, “China is a sleeping giant, let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.”

Today, China and Russia are rousing the US, Nato, Japan and Taiwan from their sleep. For China, this may turn out to be a serious misstep after three decades of glorious GDP growth and adoration. If Russia turns into the economic equivalent of a neighboring leper colony, who does China turn to next for its grand plans?

(And by the way, has Beijing not noticed how unpopular it has managed to make itself in less than a decade?)

Meanwhile, back to the nukes in Japan, Abe–who’s retired now and can speak his mind, joined by some of his LDP cohorts—may be pressing for a Nato-style nuke sharing arrangement, and it may well one day happen, but Japan’s current prime minister, Fumio Kishida, a Hiroshima (scene of the first nuke detonation) native, is completely against it.

Abe did manage to get Japan talking about the issue, however, and that shouldn’t be underestimated in pacifist Japan, the underestimated power of Northeast Asia.

Enter the Dragon (Omicron)

BBC Correspondent Stephen McDonell, in a Twitter thread, attempts to give us an insight into covid’s collision with China and the collateral damage. He writes:

China today [yesterday] has city-wide covid lockdowns in place in Shenzhen (12.5 million people), Dongguan (10.5 million), Langfang (5.5 million) + a province-wide lockdown in Jilin (24 million residents). Also quasi-lockdown provisions, in Shanghai (26 million) & Xi’an (13 million).
In addition, there are covid restrictions in cities right across China from localized housing community lockdowns to the closure of bars and restaurants, schools shifting to online classes etc. Many cities also carrying out mass testing.
As China’s officials continue to pursue a zero-covid strategy aiming for elimination in each outbreak, there’re more than 50 million residents under strict, stay at home, lockdown today [yesterday]. Then add those under softer ‘quasi-lockdown’ measures that’s more like 90 million people.

There’s no reason to doubt McDonell. We know that China’s got covid, but the country has become so impressively leakproof that we’re lacking information on how bad it is. Based on some of the photos obtained by Manya Koetse, editor-in-chief for @whatsonweibo, at the Canton Trade Fair over the weekend, it’s not going to go well for China.

Manya Koetse @manyapan

And some more photos of the crowds at the Complex, if I'm not mistaken this was all taking place at the China International Beauty Expo (CIBE) which was supposed to take place from March 10 to March 12.

Check out Manya Koetse on Twitter for more scenes of horrifying chaos in China.

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The South China Morning Post reports that “Shanghai Tower, China’s tallest building, has been cordoned off to screen for Covid-19 infections,” but said that there would not be a citywide lockdown because its prevention methods are sufficient.

As the New York Times notes, the pandemic has made the fragility of our supply chains obvious to us, but at least China kept things running with a zero-covid policy that equaled life as normal. That may be all about to change:

Lockdowns have also suspended work at electronics factories in the south and a wide variety of industrial companies in central China. Cities near Shanghai have closed highway exits or demanded that each driver show a negative PCR test—requirements that have also created miles-long lines of trucks trying to carry crucial components among factories.
High international freight costs, a serious problem last year that has contributed to inflation in the United States, have begun climbing again after a dip during the Chinese New Year holiday last month.
The cost to ship a container of goods from Asia to the US West Coast inched up to $16,353 as of last Friday, before the latest coronavirus restrictions took effect, from $16,155 a week earlier. Rates have almost tripled from a year ago and have risen 12-fold from two years ago, according to data from Freightos, a freight booking platform.

Truck traffic to [China’s] docks [is] interrupted, ships are facing delays at the ports of at least 12 hours, and may soon have to wait for as long as two weeks, said Julie Gerdeman, chief executive of Everstream Analytics, a supply chain analysis firm.
‘Even the most prepared businesses will be impacted by these new lockdowns in China, as flexibility within the supply chain is minimal,’ she said.

Other News

Joke on the Trading Floor: ‘Tencent should be renamed Fivecent’

It’s not inaccurate, over the last 12 months, the price of Tencent stock fell by 50.01 percent.

It’s a dark and stormy night out there–with possible silver linings, maybe. According to Forbes three of China’s richest men lost more than US$16 billion in one day on Tuesday. JPMorgan advised investors to stay on the sidelines in a new research note, downgrading most tech stocks to neutral or ‘underweight,’ according to Nikkei Asia, amid rumors of staff cuts of 10% at Tencent and more at Alibaba. As for that billionaire wipeout, Forbes:

Tencent cofounder Ma Huateng (also known as Pony Ma) led the dive with a US$6.1 billion wealth plunge, followed by Nongfu Spring Chairman Zhong Shanshan’s U$5.6 billion and Country Garden Co-chairman Yang Huiyan’s US$4.7 billion. Their net worths are plummeting amid a historic rout in Hong Kong, where the benchmark Hang Seng Index tumbled to an at least six-year low of less than 20,000 points on Tuesday.

Imagine how that feels, even if only for a moment: becoming one of the world’s five biggest billionaire losers.

On a more positive note, Zichen Wang of the Pekingology newsletter, notes that:

In the clearest signal from Beijing to restore market confidence so far, a special meeting of the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council was held on Wednesday, March 16, chaired by Politburo Member and Vice Premier Liu He.
The readout from the meeting has now–almost instantly–turned the Chinese mainland stock markets into positive ground, in stark contrast with the pessimism that has clouded the Chinese market in recent days.

Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan for Oil

Not much oil drilling going on, but a pretty cool rock in Saudi Arabia. Pexels.

Obviously, this is big news in the petrodollar world and the advantages for China are obvious. The Wall Street Journal backgrounder:

The Saudis are angry over the US’s lack of support for their intervention in the Yemen civil war, and over the Biden administration’s attempt to strike a deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Saudi officials have said they were shocked by the precipitous US withdrawal from Afghanistan last year.

Meanwhile, in 2018, China introduced yuan-priced oil contracts in 2018, but it did nothing to even nudge at the dominance of the US dollar, and …

… For China, using dollars has become a hazard highlighted by US sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program and on Russia in response to the Ukraine invasion.

Perhaps the days of supreme petrodollar dominance will come to an end. Would it lead to a world in which sanctions have no bite? China would certainly like it to be a world in which sanctions don’t bite it.

“The dynamics have dramatically changed. The US relationship with the Saudis has changed, China is the world’s biggest crude importer and they are offering many lucrative incentives to the kingdom,” said a Saudi official familiar with the talks.

Did Russia Ask China for Food?

As Sun Tzu said, an army marches on its belly: no food, no belly. Pexels.

Russia says no. It’s unlikely anyone believes them. At issue are military meal ready-to-eat (MERs) packs, amid online claims that at least some of the Russian supplies expired in 2015, perhaps even 2012. Amid all the misinformation and fake news it’s impossible to figure out what’s really going on, but ChinaDiction can vouch for this remarkable YouTube product review of PLA MERs. It’s genuinely worth watching, just trust us.

Remarks CNN:

In a diplomatic cable, the US relayed to its allies in Europe and Asia that China had conveyed a willingness to assist Russia, which has asked for military support. The cable did not state definitively that assistance had been provided. One official also said the US warned in the cable that China would likely deny it was willing to provide assistance.
Among the assistance Russia requested was pre-packaged, non-perishable military food kits, known in the US as ‘meal, ready-to-eat,’ or MREs, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The request underscores the basic logistical challenges that military analysts and officials say have stymied Russian progress in Ukraine–and raises questions about the fundamental readiness of the Russian military.

Is the Russian army marching on expired rations, as opposed to Chinese YouTube one-star rations? We don’t have much to go on, but this tweet would have us believe so:

Christo Grozev @christogrozev

Trophy Russian army food rations appear to have expired in 2015.

Wherever You Can See the Moon, We Can Find You, China Tells Uyghurs as far away as the Arctic Circle

If I just stand here in my red jacket, no one will ever notice me. Errr, sorry, your Chinese case investigators have got your Norwegian phone number.

The Guardian has a remarkable story about Uyghurs unable to escape the clutches of their tormentors anywhere “under the moon.”

Memettursun Omer, a Uyghur Muslim from China’s remote north-west thought he had travelled about as far as he could go to escape Chinese persecution. It was …

… the small Norwegian town of Kirkenes.
So far, he says, they have always managed to find him.

Omer had been detained by the Chinese state after returning from working abroad. He says he was tortured, beaten and interrogated about his connections in Europe before being put through months of grooming, brainwashing and threats. Eventually, his handlers decided he had become a loyal Chinese citizen, willing to do the state’s bidding.

Before he left the region, Omer says he was forced to sign a statement admitting he was a terrorist. “Wherever you go, we can use this to show you’re a criminal and bring you back to China,” he says his handlers told him at the airport.
‘If you ever start to forget what we told you, just look at the moon. Wherever you can see the moon, we can find you.’

Coda

I don’t know about you, but I’ll never look at the moon in the same way again. In some mysterious way, it’s accidentally been drawn into politics of Uyghur genocide. Chinese official sources declined to respond to ChinaDiction’s question as to whether being on the moon was safe.

Nukes, Don't Think About It, Chinese Official…